Bank of Canada Rate Decision October 2026: What It Means for Your Ontario Mortgage

The Bank of Canada announces its next interest rate decision on Wednesday, October 28, 2026, at 9:45 AM ET, together with its quarterly Monetary Policy Report — the date and time come from the Bank’s own official 2026 schedule. Most economists expect the Bank to hold the policy rate at 2.25%, the level set on September 2, 2026, which would make it the seventh consecutive hold.

If you carry a variable-rate mortgage, this is the announcement that moves your payment. If you’re shopping for a fixed rate, the more important moves already happened: through September and October, Canada’s big banks raised fixed mortgage rates by roughly 10 to 50 basis points on the back of rising bond yields. A hold on October 28 will not undo those increases. Here is how to read both possible outcomes — a hold and a hike — and what to do before the announcement.

The facts going into October 28

The policy (overnight) rate sits at 2.25%, unchanged since the Bank’s September 2, 2026 decision — the seventh hold in a row. The chartered-bank prime rate is 4.45%, also flat, which is why variable-rate payments have been steady.

The fixed-rate story is different. The 5-year Government of Canada bond yield — the benchmark that fixed mortgage rates are priced off — was about 3.54% as of October 9. Bond yields move daily, so treat that as a snapshot, not a live quote.

On that rising yield curve, the Big Six banks launched a repricing wave through September and October, lifting fixed rates by roughly 10 to 50 basis points cumulatively:

BMO, on October 7, raised its 3-year fixed rate to 4.94% and its 5-year fixed to 5.14% — up 20 basis points.
RBC, in early October, added 10 to 20 basis points across its 1- to 5-year fixed rates and trimmed its 5-year variable-rate discounts by 20 basis points.
CIBC, on October 9, added 15 to 20 basis points to its 1- to 5-year fixed rates.
Scotiabank raised its 2-year fixed rate by 15 basis points to 5.14%.
TD and National Bank made similar moves in late September.

Expectations, as of mid-October: a hold is the consensus call for October 28. After the October 9 jobs report, money markets were pricing roughly 1-in-4 odds of a hike — but those odds are market pricing, not a forecast, and they swing with every data release. Most bank economists expect the first actual hike to land sometime in 2027. The next data point most likely to move the odds is September CPI, released Monday, October 19.

If the Bank holds: what it means for you

For variable-rate borrowers, a hold means one thing: no change. The prime rate stays at 4.45%, and your rate and payment stay where they are. But don’t mistake a hold for a guarantee of cheap variable borrowing. Lenders set the discount off prime themselves, and in early October RBC trimmed its 5-year variable-rate discounts by 20 basis points — a reminder that your discount is a lender decision, not a Bank of Canada decision. If you want the full picture of how the policy rate flows through to variable rates, this guide walks through the mechanics.

For fixed-rate borrowers, a hold changes essentially nothing. Fixed rates don’t follow the Bank of Canada’s policy rate — they follow bond yields, which already pushed your rate up in the repricing wave above. If you were waiting for the October 28 decision to bring fixed rates back down, it won’t. The most a hold does for fixed-rate shoppers is keep the door from swinging further shut — and even then, bond markets get their own vote.

If the Bank hikes: what it means for you

For variable-rate borrowers, a 25-basis-point hike would lift the prime rate above 4.45%, and your variable rate — and your payment — would rise with it. If your mortgage has a fixed payment with a variable rate, check your trigger rate: some lenders raise your payment at the trigger point, others keep the payment and stretch your amortization. Know which one yours does before the announcement, not after.

For fixed-rate borrowers, the picture is more subtle. Lenders have already priced a lot of hike risk into current fixed rates — the September–October increases happened while the policy rate sat untouched at 2.25%. A surprise hike could still push bond yields and fixed rates higher, but much of a quarter-point move may already be sitting in today’s posted rates. Either way, the lesson of the last six weeks is the same: for fixed rates, the bond market moves first, and the Bank of Canada moves second.

The honest line for pre-approval and renewal clients

Here’s the line I give every pre-approval and renewal client this month: a hold won’t protect your fixed rate.

Fixed mortgage rates are priced off Government of Canada bond yields, not the Bank of Canada’s policy rate. The September–October bank moves are the proof — fixed rates rose 10 to 50 basis points while the policy rate never budged from 2.25%.

If you hold a pre-approval, your real protection is the rate hold itself — often 90 to 120 days at most lenders — which locks your rate regardless of what the Bank does on October 28. If you’re shopping now, get that rate hold in writing and know its expiry date. Waiting for the announcement buys you nothing.

If your renewal is coming up, start shopping about 120 days before maturity. Your own bank’s first offer is rarely its best, and a proper renewal comparison can pull competing offers into one view.

And if your current term started in 2020 or 2021, brace for sticker shock: those renewals are landing in a world where posted 5-year fixed rates sit above 5% — BMO’s was 5.14% as of October 7 — not the sub-2% environment you signed at. The payment jump is real, which is exactly why early shopping matters more than the October 28 headline.

What a hold or hike does to private mortgages

Private mortgage rates don’t track the policy rate one-for-one. They’re set by the lender’s own cost of funds plus the risk premium on your deal — and when banks raise rates and bond yields climb, private lenders’ funding costs rise too. That pressure flows through to first- and second-mortgage pricing, as it has through September and October. Here’s how private mortgages work in Ontario if you’re new to them.

A hold keeps that pressure steady rather than removing it. A hike adds to it — and on a larger second mortgage, a quarter point compounds into real money over a year.

If you’re in a private mortgage, your best defence was never a rate forecast — it’s an exit strategy. Private terms are meant to be temporary, typically one to two years, with a plan to refinance into bankable A-lender rates once your credit, income documentation, or equity position improves. If your private term matures in the next few months, start that conversation now. Don’t wait to see what October 28 brings.

What to do before October 28

If your renewal is within six months, start comparing now. Don’t anchor to your own bank’s first offer — put it beside two or three others.
If you’re buying, lock a pre-approval rate hold and write down its expiry date.
Run the numbers on current rates. Our mortgage calculator’s bank-rate dropdown was refreshed on October 12 (TD 5.34%, CIBC 4.99%, RBC 5.14%, BMO 4.99%, National Bank 4.69%).
Variable-rate borrowers: know your trigger rate or trigger point, and know whether your lender raises the payment or extends the amortization when it’s hit.

I won’t predict what the Bank does on October 28 — and be sceptical of anyone who does. The hike odds are market pricing, not a forecast; they’ll move again when September CPI lands on October 19. What you can control is your own position: your renewal timeline, your rate hold, your exit strategy from private lending.

I’m Kia Pakravan, a licensed Ontario mortgage agent (FSRA #13380). If your renewal is coming up, your pre-approval is expiring, or you’re weighing private options, get in touch and we’ll map out your move before the announcement.